Major Swedish banks demonstrate considerable resilience in the stress test Finansinspektionen (FI) conducted in 2022. The test identifies the potential effects on the five largest Swedish banks’ financial positions when interest rates and inflation increase. This memorandum (only available in Swedish) describes the method behind the stress test and its results.
Rising interest rates, decreased risk-taking and a slowing economy are weighing on highly indebted commercial real estate firms and households. The rapid transition to higher interest rates and a decreased willingness to take risk means financial stability risks have increased since spring. At the same time, this transition may lead to lower risk-taking and indebtedness in the long run, thus lowering stability risks.
High inflation has led to rapidly rising interest rates. Given the current rapid change in conditions, both participants on the financial markets and borrowers need to transition quickly. In the short term, this means elevated risks and greater uncertainty. The already high risks in the commercial real estate sector have continued to increase.
Finansinspektionen publishes the capital requirements of the largest Swedish banks and credit institutions that belong to supervisory categories 1 and 2 as of the end of Q3 2022.
Changing or pausing the amortisation requirements is not an accurate or appropriate measure for helping the households with the greatest need for financial support to handle their higher costs. This is the conclusion of FI’s evaluation of how the amortisation requirements impact households with lower incomes and small margins in today’s difficult economy.
Finansinspektionen has reciprocated the Norwegian systemic risk buffer.