The outlook for financial stability has improved somewhat, and uncertainty has decreased, but we are still in the middle of a recession. Higher costs for both interest payments and other goods and services are putting pressure on households and firms. The worsened global security situation is also imposing increased demands on the operational resilience in the financial sectorn. These are the conclusions of this year's first stability report.
The higher interest rate means that households and companies need to make adjustments to their finances. Finansinspektionen (FI) is now seeing a decline in risk-taking. However, the change in the state of the economy and uncertainty regarding how long the higher interest rates will remain pose a risk to financial stability. Commercial real estate undertakings with high debt are particularly at risk should the interest rates remain high. These are the conclusions of the second Stability Report of the year.
The risks given the highest priority in FI’s consumer protection work for 2023 are unaffordable lending, unsuitable investment products and investment fraud.
Digitalisation introduces both opportunities and risks to the financial market. After conducting a new survey, FI has noted that broader regulation on how customer data can be shared with third-party providers could make it easier for consumers to compare financial products such as occupational pensions and mortgages.
Since the publication of the stability report last autumn, inflation has slowed somewhat in the large economies but is still significantly higher than the central banks’ inflation targets. Monetary policy has therefore been tightened further, and interest rates continued to rise. High inflation and rising interest rates mean that the forecasts for global economic development continue to be weak.
FI’s strategy for preventing greenwashing in the financial sector aims to safeguard the trust in sustainable investments and a sustainable finance market.
In 2019, FI’s overarching mandate was expanded to include a responsibility to ensure that the financial system contributes to sustainable development. FI is also the responsible supervisory authority for a number of new regulations related to sustainable finance that are the result of the EU’s ambitious sustainability agenda.
High inflation has led to rapidly rising interest rates. Given the current rapid change in conditions, both participants on the financial markets and borrowers need to transition quickly. In the short term, this means elevated risks and greater uncertainty. The already high risks in the commercial real estate sector have continued to increase.
The Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority, Finansinspektionen (FI) has conducted an in-depth analysis of how managers of funds registered in Sweden that have sustainable investment as its objective (so-called Article 9 funds) meet the requirements on sustainability-related disclosures in the pre-contractual information they must provide to investors.
Interest rates and interest rate expectations have increased in 2022 due to high and rising inflation. One sector that is vulnerable to rising interest rates is the commercial real estate sector. FI has also noted that liquidity on the bond markets has decreased, and the functionality of the corporate bond market is once again impaired.
Unsound lending practices and commission from the sale of financial instruments are the highest prioritised risks in Finansinspektionen’s (FI) consumer protection assignment for 2022.
Sweden’s economy has largely recovered and there is good access to financing in the financial system. The Riksbank should therefore begin the phase-out of asset purchasing to avoid further increase of risk-taking. Amongst others, FI sees growing risks within the commercial real estate companies.
FI has analysed and compared information that firms under FI’s money laundering supervision reported to the authority during the years 2018-2021. The analysis indicates areas where the companies need to develop their processes to better handle the risk of being misused for money laundering or terrorist financing.
The economy is continuing to recover. Support measures have been necessary to speed up the recovery, but they need to be gradually phased out as the economy strengthens. This applies primarily to measures that are associated with the build-up of stability risks.
To reach the climate goals in the Paris Agreement, carbon emissions must go down. The most efficient way to achieve this is by raising the cost of emissions compared to today.
Finansinspektionen has an assignment to promote the financial system’s contribution to sustainable development. The sustainability report outlines the current sustainability issues that are related to the financial sector and lists examples of what FI is working on in this area.
In recent years, a number of legislative proposals and other initiatives have been presented to strengthen the financial sector’s resilience to cyberattacks. Given this background, Finansinspektionen has prepared a memorandum to describe FI’s role in terms of contributing to strong cyber security and its work to prevent cyber threats to the Swedish financial sector.
Paying by invoice or with other credit-based offers is becoming an integral part of shopping online. Young adults are unique with their small margins and large number of payment reminders and collection notices. Unaffordable loans are a prioritised consumer risk in this year’s report.
The pandemic has triggered a deep economic recession in many countries, even if a slight recovery has begun. Extensive support measures have mitigated the economic impact and reduced the uncertainty on the financial markets. During the autumn, infection rates have once again begun to increase and several countries have introduced new restrictions, which will dampen the economic recovery, even though it is uncertain to which extent.
The coronavirus pandemic has resulted in an exceptional stress for the real economy. Governments, central banks and supervisory authorities have implemented significant measures to dampen the crisis. This has helped to reduce the uncertainty on the financial markets. But we are in still in the middle of the crisis, and there is considerable uncertainty going forward.