Finansinspektionen (FI) presents in this memorandum a stress test of the Swedish banks that we conducted in the autumn of 2020. The results indicate that the major banks have significant resilience to the credit losses that could arise and also a capacity to maintain the supply of credit.
The pandemic has triggered a deep economic recession in many countries, even if a slight recovery has begun. Extensive support measures have mitigated the economic impact and reduced the uncertainty on the financial markets. During the autumn, infection rates have once again begun to increase and several countries have introduced new restrictions, which will dampen the economic recovery, even though it is uncertain to which extent.
An increase in the spread of the coronavirus will dampen the recovery in European economies and, in the long run, this could impact financial stability, writes Finansinspektionen (FI) in this year’s second stability report, which will be published today.
Finansinspektionen publishes the capital requirements of the largest Swedish banks and credit institutions that belong to supervisory categories 1 and 2 as of the end of Q3 2020.
Finansinspektionen (FI) decided on 24 November not to change the countercyclical buffer rate. The buffer rate of 0 per cent, which was applied starting on 16 March 2020, shall thus continue to apply. The countercyclical buffer guide is set at 1.7 per cent.
Large credit losses can result in otherwise profitable banks reporting a loss. This FI Analysis describes a methodology for estimating how large credit losses can be in a stressed macroeconomic scenario.
FI has decided to change the application of capital requirements for Swedish banks in order to adapt to the EU’s so-called banking package.
The European Commission has announced that it does not intend to object to FI's intention to extend the current risk weight floor for Swedish mortgages. This means that FI may implement the measure.
The tax rebate for interest expenses – the interest deduction – means that households borrow more, and can and want to pay more for homes. This means that the households experience an increase in both their liabilities and assets, which in turn could have an impact on the stability of the financial system. In this FI Analysis, we calculate the impact of a change to the interest deduction. The reason for this analysis is the direct link between interest deductions and households’ loans.
Commercial real estate firms are sensitive to changes in interest rate expenses and income. Following a shock, vulnerable commercial real estate firms could lead to credit losses for the banks.