The uncertainty in geopolitical and economic developments is high, and the risk of negative shocks is higher now than it was last autumn. At the same time, Swedish banks have large capital buffers and good profitability, which builds resilience. Financial firms, households and firms all need to be prepared that the uncertainty could persist for a while. These are some of the conclusions from FI's first stability report of the year.
The new generative AI technology has spread rapidly and extensively throughout the Swedish financial sector. At the same time, the work to manage the risks accompanying the new technology is lagging behind. These are FI’s findings following a survey of firms’ use of AI.
The outlook for financial stability has improved somewhat in the past six months. Sweden continues to experience a mild economic downturn, but interest rate cuts are contributing to improved optimism about the future. At the same time, the uncertain global economic and geopolitical situation is leading to heightened risks, in part in the form of cyber attacks. These are the conclusions of FI’s second stability report for the year.
The outlook for financial stability has improved somewhat, and uncertainty has decreased, but we are still in the middle of a recession. Higher costs for both interest payments and other goods and services are putting pressure on households and firms. The worsened global security situation is also imposing increased demands on the operational resilience in the financial sectorn. These are the conclusions of this year's first stability report.
Six out of ten say that sustainability is important when saving money. Advisors at banks, investment firms and insurance intermediaries have an obligation to take into account consumers’ sustainability preferences. This does not always happen. Instead, many consumers currently face a risk of investing in products that do not correspond to their expectations when it comes to sustainability. This is the conclusion FI draws from its analysis, and we are now encouraging firms to devote a special focus to this topic.
The study confirms previous results showing that women are underrepresented in the stock market. The differences arise as early as three years of age, which shows that adults more often buy stocks for boys than for girls. We also see that men generally have larger stock portfolios than women throughout life, although women increase their stock wealth later in life.
In this analysis, we estimate how much Swedish listed and larger privately owned commercial real estate firms need to reduce their debt in a climate of rising financing costs and falling property values. We calculate the firms need to reduce their debt to maintain certain levels of interest coverage ratio and loan-to-value.
The higher interest rate means that households and companies need to make adjustments to their finances. Finansinspektionen (FI) is now seeing a decline in risk-taking. However, the change in the state of the economy and uncertainty regarding how long the higher interest rates will remain pose a risk to financial stability. Commercial real estate undertakings with high debt are particularly at risk should the interest rates remain high. These are the conclusions of the second Stability Report of the year.
The risks given the highest priority in FI’s consumer protection work for 2023 are unaffordable lending, unsuitable investment products and investment fraud.
Digitalisation introduces both opportunities and risks to the financial market. After conducting a new survey, FI has noted that broader regulation on how customer data can be shared with third-party providers could make it easier for consumers to compare financial products such as occupational pensions and mortgages.
In 2021, Gamestop, a relatively unknown American company, experienced a sudden increase in its stock price. The price increase had been orchestrated by a group of investors who had collaborated via a social media platform and successfully drove up the price of the stock by 1,500 per cent within days. Other stocks, including AMC, had exhibited similar patterns, giving rise to the term "meme stocks" due to the humorous elements found in the online forums where these stocks were discussed.
FI’s strategy for preventing greenwashing in the financial sector aims to safeguard the trust in sustainable investments and a sustainable finance market.
In 2019, FI’s overarching mandate was expanded to include a responsibility to ensure that the financial system contributes to sustainable development. FI is also the responsible supervisory authority for a number of new regulations related to sustainable finance that are the result of the EU’s ambitious sustainability agenda.
High inflation has led to rapidly rising interest rates. Given the current rapid change in conditions, both participants on the financial markets and borrowers need to transition quickly. In the short term, this means elevated risks and greater uncertainty. The already high risks in the commercial real estate sector have continued to increase.
FI’s stress tests show that the majority of Swedish funds appear to be able to handle relatively large outflows in an effective manner. However, some corporate bond funds and a relatively large share of high-yield bond funds may experience liquidity problems under stressed market conditions.
The Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority, Finansinspektionen (FI) has conducted an in-depth analysis of how managers of funds registered in Sweden that have sustainable investment as its objective (so-called Article 9 funds) meet the requirements on sustainability-related disclosures in the pre-contractual information they must provide to investors.
Interest rates and interest rate expectations have increased in 2022 due to high and rising inflation. One sector that is vulnerable to rising interest rates is the commercial real estate sector. FI has also noted that liquidity on the bond markets has decreased, and the functionality of the corporate bond market is once again impaired.
Unsound lending practices and commission from the sale of financial instruments are the highest prioritised risks in Finansinspektionen’s (FI) consumer protection assignment for 2022.
FI has conducted an investigation into a number of credit institutions’ exposures, risk measurement and management of counterparty risk and credit valuation adjustment (CVA) risk related to positions in financial derivatives.
Sweden’s economy has largely recovered and there is good access to financing in the financial system. The Riksbank should therefore begin the phase-out of asset purchasing to avoid further increase of risk-taking. Amongst others, FI sees growing risks within the commercial real estate companies.